An Israeli raid in southern Lebanon caused injuries during a ceasefire period. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Israel deployed Iron Dome and troops to the UAE amid conflict with Iran. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 1.4% YES.

Bitcoin rises to $78K with its fourth straight weekly gain amid US-Iran ceasefire. Dip to $60K by April 30 at 0% YES.

Lebanese PM Salam challenges Hezbollah's military role. Diplomatic meeting with Israel by April 30 at 100% YES.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted due to blockades. Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 at 54.5% YES.

The ongoing Iran war is straining Gulf economies and complicating diplomacy. Odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

The strike occurred while the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market remains frozen, with odds unchanged and no trades recorded.

Iran warns of stronger retaliation against US and Israel. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 15 at 13.5% YES.

Incidents of Tesla vandalism are increasing as protesters target Elon Musk over his role in the U.S. Department of Government ...

President Trump cancelled envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s trip for Iran peace talks. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas ...

Reports of sexual abuse in Iranian prisons rise amid regime crackdown. Odds of the Iranian regime falling by May 31 at 4.1% ...

Israel's strikes on Lebanese infrastructure make withdrawal by April unlikely. Withdrawal by April 30 at 0.5% YES.