UK and US enhance security collaboration as King Charles plans US visit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.3% YES.

Israel dropped leaflets over Sour, straining the Lebanon ceasefire. Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at ...

The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran ...

US cancels envoy travel to Pakistan, shifting focus to pressure on Iran. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 now at 0.9% ...

US Treasury Secretary meets with bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic's Mythos risks. Market cap between $100B and $200B by IPO day ...

With 6 days left before the April 30 resolution date, the lack of progress has driven odds to their lowest point. Daily ...

Israeli President Herzog delays a decision on Netanyahu's pardon and seeks a plea deal. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% YES.

Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed 2,490 people, yet the market signals a ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

The Kerman arrests fit into Iran’s tightened security posture during ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. That adds to the ...

A gunman targeted Trump officials at a White House dinner, raising security concerns; Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 ...

Iran aired footage from the seized vessel, signaling prolonged disruptions. Iran coup attempt by June 30 at 13.5% YES.

Macron supports Trump after an armed attack as US-Iran talks stall. Next US-Iran meeting by April 26 at 0.3% YES.