Lebanese PM Salam challenges Hezbollah's military role. Diplomatic meeting with Israel by April 30 at 100% YES.

Israel's strikes on Lebanese infrastructure make withdrawal by April unlikely. Withdrawal by April 30 at 0.5% YES.

Netanyahu ordered strikes on Hezbollah after ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

Since ending Quantitative Tightening, the Fed has injected $172 billion into the markets, with another $7.6 billion scheduled ...

US motorists cut fuel consumption as Iran conflict drives petrol prices up. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.2% YES.

Ukrainian forces hit the Yaroslavl refinery, yet markets show Russia's entry into Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30 at 100% YES.

Trump’s statement that a recent shooting won’t deter his Iran war stance has moved odds on Iran surrendering its enriched ...

Lebanon freed its last Hezbollah detainees on minimal bail, with a ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

UK and US enhance security collaboration as King Charles plans US visit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.3% YES.

Israeli President Herzog delays a decision on Netanyahu's pardon and seeks a plea deal. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% YES.

US Treasury Secretary meets with bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic's Mythos risks. Market cap between $100B and $200B by IPO day ...

The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran ...