Iran appoints hardliner Jalili as lead negotiator for US talks. No qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 86% YES.

Bitcoin approaches $79K with potential for a short squeeze at $81K. Bitcoin reaching $200K by December 31, 2026 at 5% YES.

Trump claims division in Iran's leadership. Pahlavi's entry into Iran by June 30 at 6.5% YES, while by December 31 at 15.5% ...

An armed suspect targeting Trump officials was stopped at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. Cabinet member resignation ...

Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid rising military activity. Ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

Ghalibaf’s statement comes as the fragile two-week ceasefire nears expiration. The US-Iran peace deal market shows the April ...

Apple has confirmed John Ternus as the next CEO, succeeding Tim Cook. The Polymarket contract on Ternus becoming CEO by ...

Former Israeli Prime Ministers Bennett and Lapid launch a new party to challenge Netanyahu in 2026. Netanyahu's departure by ...

Israeli airstrikes hit an evacuation route in south Lebanon amid military escalation. Ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

The IRGC Quds Force chief promised continued support for Hezbollah, though the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market ...

The Iran conflict has put oil supply dependencies back in focus. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1% ...

Nvidia's market cap dominance odds remain steady amid U.S.-Iran tensions and tariffs. Market for Nvidia as largest company by ...