Trump criticized NATO allies, prompting traders to reassess US withdrawal. Withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.1% YES.

Iranian MP states the Strait of Hormuz won't return to pre-war conditions. Traffic returning to normal by May 15 at 14.5% YES ...

Israel's High Court orders enforcement of the draft law, pressuring Netanyahu's coalition. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% ...

IRGC intercepted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, but UK warship deployment odds remain unchanged at 1.2% YES.

Senator Tillis drops opposition to Warsh's Fed chair confirmation. Odds for confirmation by May 15 rise to 88% YES.

A video circulating online fuels speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's status. Iran leadership change by December 31 at 41% ...

The truce and US efforts to ensure shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz have eased fears of supply disruptions. The crude oil all-time high market shows low odds for prices exceeding ...

Larry Johnson, ex-CIA, points out that Stratotankers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-capable submarines are now in position, ...

The Israeli Army struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon today. Suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 at 100% YES.

Hezbollah attacked Israeli troops, breaking the ceasefire. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% YES, but likely a mispricing ...

Ahmad Vahidi's influence is rising amid a power shift in the IRGC. Leadership change in Iran by December 31 at 41% YES.

US expands pressure on Iran with Operation Economic Fury. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April at 5.5% YES.