Hezbollah attacked Israeli troops, breaking the ceasefire. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% YES, but likely a mispricing ...

Iranian MP states the Strait of Hormuz won't return to pre-war conditions. Traffic returning to normal by May 15 at 14.5% YES ...

The truce and US efforts to ensure shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz have eased fears of supply disruptions. The crude oil all-time high market shows low odds for prices exceeding ...

Iran's Foreign Minister visits Islamabad for regional talks, impacting ceasefire odds. Ceasefire by April 21, 2026 at 100% ...

Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iranian attacks. Iran strike on Israel by April 30, 2026 sits at 100% YES.

A drone explosion in Lebanon killed an Israeli soldier, raising ceasefire concerns; ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

Senator Thom Tillis has lifted his blockade of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to head the Federal Reserve. After the Justice ...

Hedge funds have significantly cut their exposure to US tech stocks, marking the third-largest weekly exit in five years, ...

The April 30 deadline is close, and nuclear strike reports make any diplomatic progress harder. At 3¢, a YES bet pays $1 if a ...

Tim Cook is backing his successor John Ternus with plans for a foldable iPhone, and the Next CEO of Apple market on ...

Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon complicate diplomacy as Iran negotiates in Oman. Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30 ...

UN warns of medical supply shortages in Iran amid conflict. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 at 14.5% ...