Lebanon freed its last Hezbollah detainees on minimal bail, with a ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

Netanyahu ordered strikes on Hezbollah after ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

UK and US enhance security collaboration as King Charles plans US visit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.3% YES.

US cancels envoy travel to Pakistan, shifting focus to pressure on Iran. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 now at 0.9% ...

With 6 days left before the April 30 resolution date, the lack of progress has driven odds to their lowest point. Daily ...

The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran ...

Israel dropped leaflets over Sour, straining the Lebanon ceasefire. Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at ...

Israeli President Herzog delays a decision on Netanyahu's pardon and seeks a plea deal. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% YES.

The Kerman arrests fit into Iran’s tightened security posture during ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. That adds to the ...

Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed 2,490 people, yet the market signals a ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

A gunman targeted Trump officials at a White House dinner, raising security concerns; Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 ...

Iran aired footage from the seized vessel, signaling prolonged disruptions. Iran coup attempt by June 30 at 13.5% YES.