UK and US enhance security collaboration as King Charles plans US visit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.3% YES.

Trump’s statement that a recent shooting won’t deter his Iran war stance has moved odds on Iran surrendering its enriched ...

Israeli President Herzog delays a decision on Netanyahu's pardon and seeks a plea deal. Netanyahu out by June 30 at 5.5% YES.

Ukrainian forces hit the Yaroslavl refinery, yet markets show Russia's entry into Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30 at 100% YES.

Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed 2,490 people, yet the market signals a ceasefire by June 30 at 100% YES.

The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran ...

US cancels envoy travel to Pakistan, shifting focus to pressure on Iran. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 now at 0.9% ...

Lebanon freed its last Hezbollah detainees on minimal bail, with a ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

Netanyahu ordered strikes on Hezbollah after ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

Israel dropped leaflets over Sour, straining the Lebanon ceasefire. Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at ...

The Kerman arrests fit into Iran’s tightened security posture during ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. That adds to the ...

A gunman targeted Trump officials at a White House dinner, raising security concerns; Trump Cabinet resignation before 2027 ...