Tanker tracker data shows that 4 million barrels have slipped past the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. The odds for ...

US envoys canceled their visit to Islamabad, raising doubts about peace talks. US-Iran peace deal by April 30 drops to 2% YES ...

With Iran getting oil out despite the blockade, traders are pricing in a more stable supply picture. The crude oil all-time ...

Israeli attacks have killed over 2,500 in Lebanon since March 2026. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026, is at 100% YES.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed his forces to “forcefully” attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The odds of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by June 30 sit at 100% YES ...

Trump calls for Spain's NATO suspension over its Iran war stance. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.1% YES.

Both the June 30 and April 30 markets for the GPT-5.5 release trade at 100% YES. Volume is substantial, with face values of ...

Hezbollah and Israel escalate attacks, each blaming the other for ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% ...

The Guardian reports no progress in US-Iran negotiations. The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 30 has ...

Iran's FM returns to Islamabad for talks amid US envoy trip cancellation. Ceasefire broken by April 21, 2026 at 100% YES.

Israel deployed Iron Dome to the UAE amid rising Iranian strikes. Gulf state military action against Iran by April 30 at 3.4% ...

Senator Tillis endorsed Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair after the DOJ ended its investigation into Powell. Warsh's confirmation by ...