Iran blocks free shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting a return to normal. Traffic returning to normal by May 15 at ...

Iran’s Foreign Minister and Oman’s Sultan met to discuss security in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz traffic ...

Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon after an evacuation warning. Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at ...

US-Iran talks have hit another dead end, with recent meetings in Pakistan failing to produce results. The probability of a US ...

Hengli Petrochemical denies trade with Iran amid US sanctions. US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 now at 2.9% YES.

An Israeli raid in southern Lebanon caused injuries during a ceasefire period. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 at 100% YES.

Israel deployed Iron Dome and troops to the UAE amid conflict with Iran. Permanent peace deal by April 30 at 1.4% YES.

Bitcoin rises to $78K with its fourth straight weekly gain amid US-Iran ceasefire. Dip to $60K by April 30 at 0% YES.

The ongoing Iran war is straining Gulf economies and complicating diplomacy. Odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

The strike occurred while the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market remains frozen, with odds unchanged and no trades recorded.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly halted due to blockades. Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 at 54.5% YES.

President Trump cancelled envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s trip for Iran peace talks. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas ...