The strike occurred while the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market remains frozen, with odds unchanged and no trades recorded.

The ongoing Iran war is straining Gulf economies and complicating diplomacy. Odds of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 ...

Lebanese PM Salam challenges Hezbollah's military role. Diplomatic meeting with Israel by April 30 at 100% YES.

Israel's strikes on Lebanese infrastructure make withdrawal by April unlikely. Withdrawal by April 30 at 0.5% YES.

Since ending Quantitative Tightening, the Fed has injected $172 billion into the markets, with another $7.6 billion scheduled ...

Trump’s statement that a recent shooting won’t deter his Iran war stance has moved odds on Iran surrendering its enriched ...

US motorists cut fuel consumption as Iran conflict drives petrol prices up. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.2% YES.

Ukrainian forces hit the Yaroslavl refinery, yet markets show Russia's entry into Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30 at 100% YES.

UK and US enhance security collaboration as King Charles plans US visit. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.3% YES.

Netanyahu ordered strikes on Hezbollah after ceasefire violations. Ceasefire by June 30, 2026 priced at 100% YES.

US Treasury Secretary meets with bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic's Mythos risks. Market cap between $100B and $200B by IPO day ...

Bitcoin approaches $80K, risking $2.25B in short liquidations. Bitcoin at $200K by December 31, 2026 priced at 4.9% YES.