Tehran-Washington talks have stalled, casting doubt on Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30. Agreement by April 30 at 1.8% YES.

Israel's haredi draft crisis threatens Netanyahu's coalition stability. Netanyahu stepping down by June 30 at 5.5% YES.

Over 600 ships remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, lowering traffic normalization odds by May 15 to 13.5% YES.

Iran rejected demands for managing the Strait of Hormuz and halting uranium enrichment. Agreement to end enrichment by April ...

Bitcoin futures saw $600M in long liquidations, the highest since February. Dip to $60K by April 30 at 0% YES.

Bitcoin approaches $80K, risking $2.25B in short liquidations. Bitcoin at $200K by December 31, 2026 priced at 4.9% YES.

Gunman opens fire at White House Correspondents' Dinner, evacuating Trump. Next to leave Trump cabinet by 2027 at 7.4% YES.

The Sultan of Oman met with Iran’s Foreign Minister to discuss regional developments and mediation efforts. The odds of Iran ...

Zelensky calls for an end to Russian nuclear threats on Chornobyl anniversary. Ceasefire by April 30, 2026 at 0.5% YES.

Trump’s cancellation of his envoys’ trip to Iran and Tehran’s refusal to negotiate under threat have frozen diplomatic ...

The Ethereum Foundation unstaked $48.9M in ETH, raising selling pressure concerns. ETH reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 ...

Iran war disrupts oil supply, pushing crude to $90 by June. Market for crude oil hitting $90 by June at 67% YES.