When we set our expectations and operate based on the sequence of events that unfolded the last time a similar situation has occurred, we surrender to history.

Abstract: Technology competition stands as a critical determinant of national ascendancy or decline. This paper proposes a Lifecycle-Enhanced Time Sensitive Graph Model for Conflict Resolution ...

Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi let users win money by correctly guessing the outcome of practically any ...

Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born. The billion-dollar prediction markets industry began like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar.

Economists have noticed that betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pretty good at predicting not just political ...